Uncertain Science ... Uncertain WorldCambridge University Press, 2005 M06 23 Is the world warming due to the Greenhouse Effect? Can nuclear weapon arsenals be relied upon without periodic testing? Is the world running out of oil? What action should be taken against an outbreak of foot-and-mouth or BSE? Why can't scientists provide certain answers to these and many other questions? The uncertainty of science is puzzling. It arises when scientists have more than one answer to a problem or disagree amongst themselves. In this engaging book, Henry Pollack guides the reader through the maze of contradiction and uncertainty, acquainting them with the ways that uncertainty arises in science, how scientists accommodate and make use of uncertainty, and how in the face of uncertainty they reach their conclusions. Taking examples from recent science headlines and every day life, Uncertain Science ... Uncertain World enables the reader to evaluate uncertainty from their own perspectives, and find out more about how science actually works. |
Contents
| 1 | |
2 Uncertain about science | 5 |
3 Can the media help? | 23 |
4 Unfamiliarity breeds uncertainty | 43 |
5 Fever or chill? | 63 |
6 A fiftyfifty chance | 87 |
7 Im not quite sure how this works | 105 |
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American Geophysical Union Antarctica Arctic Ocean atmosphere average temperature candidates carbon dioxide census certainty CFCs chapter climate system colorectal cancer complex concept consequences context continents count decades determine developed Earth Earth’s surface earthquake earthquake insurance earthquake prediction economic effect election energy environmental eruption estimate evaluate event evidence experiment experimental factors flood forecast fossil fuels future geological global climate change global warming greenhouse effect greenhouse gases heat Henry Pollack human incomplete increased industry IPCC long-term measurements ment meter natural nuclear numerical models observations occur ocean outcome ozone past physical planet poll possible prediction probability problem production question range recognize reconstructing region result rocks sample San Andreas fault scenarios scientific uncertainty scientists solar strategy thermometer tion trends twentieth century uncertain understanding variability vote weather